Overview

• Deloitte projects November–January retail sales of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion, below last year’s 4.2% increase.
• Online sales are forecast to rise 7% to 9% to roughly $305 billion to $310.7 billion.
• In-store sales are expected to grow 2% to 2.2%, easing from 3.4% a year ago.
• The model leans on anticipated disposable income gains of 3.1% to 5.4% and two expected interest rate cuts, with a separate consumer survey due next month.
• A PwC survey signals potential pullbacks, including a 5% average spending decline and a 23% cut among Gen Z, while retailer guidance remains mixed and some purchases may be pulled forward due to tariffs and inflation concerns.