Overview
- Deloitte projects real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026, easing from roughly 1.7% in 2025.
- U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty are flagged as the chief downside risks, with the July CUSMA/USMCA review described as pivotal for maintaining tariff‑free access.
- Federal defence, infrastructure and targeted sector supports are seen providing gradual lift as investment incentives take time to translate into stronger activity.
- Chief economists from Canada’s largest banks expect slow but positive growth and generally steady interest rates this year, with some cautioning that late‑2026 hikes are possible if inflation persists.
- Tariff impacts remain uneven, weighing on manufacturing regions such as Southwestern Ontario and parts of Quebec, while firms plan less hiring early in 2026 even as tighter immigration intake could lower measured unemployment.