Overview
- Deloitte projects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026, down from 1.7% in 2025, with momentum expected to build in the second half.
- The firm flags U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty as the chief drag, and says the July USMCA/CUSMA review will be pivotal for preserving tariff-free access.
- Near-term support comes from higher defence spending and assistance to tariff-hit industries, while federal plans to spur private investment and major projects could lift business outlays later in the year.
- Provincial fortunes diverge, with B.C. forecast at 1.6% due to pressure on forestry and aluminum, while Alberta and Saskatchewan are seen above 2% and manufacturing regions such as Southwestern Ontario face sharper strain.
- Hiring is expected to soften in early 2026 even as the unemployment rate may ease with immigration curbs, and bank economists urge deeper productivity-focused policy as interest rates largely hold steady.