Overview
- Core PCE rose 0.2% in September and eased to 2.8% year over year, while headline PCE increased 0.3% on the month and 2.8% annually, BEA data show.
- Personal spending increased 0.3% and income rose 0.4%, with inflation‑adjusted spending essentially flat, signaling slower consumer momentum.
- Traders priced roughly 87% odds of a quarter‑point rate cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, and stocks extended gains after the release.
- Economists flagged sticky services inflation and tariff pass‑through on goods as ongoing risks even with the modest cooling in core price pressures.
- Because October and November official reports were postponed, the FOMC will set policy without fresher inflation and employment data; the November jobs report is due Dec. 16.