Overview
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported core PCE up 0.2% in September and 2.8% from a year earlier, with headline PCE up 0.3% on the month and 2.8% year over year.
- Personal income increased 0.4% while nominal spending rose 0.3%, leaving real consumer outlays essentially flat.
- The release arrived weeks late after a 43-day federal shutdown, narrowing but not eliminating data gaps ahead of other delayed reports.
- Traders boosted odds of a 25-basis-point cut, with CME FedWatch showing the move largely priced and stocks extending gains after the data.
- The Fed meets Dec. 9–10, and policymakers track core PCE as their preferred inflation gauge, which remains above the 2% target.