Overview
- Core PCE rose 0.2% in September and 2.8% year over year, easing from 2.9% in August, while headline PCE increased 0.3% on the month and 2.8% annually.
- Personal income grew 0.4% and spending 0.3% in September, with inflation-adjusted outlays essentially flat, signaling softer consumer momentum.
- Traders priced roughly mid- to high-80s percent odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 Fed meeting, and U.S. stocks gained after the release.
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary index showed consumer sentiment at 53.3 in early December, with one-year inflation expectations down to 4.1%.
- The BEA report arrived after a 43-day government shutdown delayed key data, leaving policymakers with limited fresh readings ahead of the rate decision and Q3 GDP revisions due Dec. 23.