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Delayed CPI Shows Inflation at 3%, Intensifying Fight Over Prices and Policy

The reading undercuts President Trump's claims of falling prices, strengthening expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut.

Overview

  • The September Consumer Price Index, released after a shutdown delay, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.0% year over year, slightly above August’s 2.9% pace but below market forecasts.
  • Grocery prices increased 0.3% from August and are about 2.7% higher than a year earlier, with notable annual jumps for coffee (about 19%) and beef and veal (about 15%).
  • The White House said the result came in below expectations and credited the administration’s agenda, while also warning the ongoing shutdown will likely prevent an October inflation report.
  • Fact-checkers rebutted the president’s repeated claims that grocery prices and inflation are down, and food economists cited tariffs and immigration enforcement as contributors to higher food costs.
  • Economists said the softer-than-feared print keeps a Fed rate cut on the table even with inflation above the 2% target, as polls show slipping public approval of the president’s economic stewardship.