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4h ago

Delayed CPI Puts Inflation at 3% as Shutdown Threatens Next Report and Shapes Fed Outlook

Fresh data undercuts claims that inflation is solved by highlighting price pressures tied to tariffs.

Friday’s inflation report for September is this month's only official look at the U.S. economy amid the federal shutdown.
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A shopper looks at a sales advertisement at a grocery store.

Overview

  • September consumer prices rose 0.3% from August and 3.0% year over year, with gasoline up 4.1% and grocery prices ticking higher, while core inflation held near 3%.
  • The shutdown postponed the report and forced a White House recall of BLS staff, and officials warn there may be no October CPI release.
  • Fact‑checkers disputed President Trump’s assertions that prices are down, noting back‑to‑back monthly increases in groceries and inflation still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
  • Markets and economists said the slightly softer‑than‑expected print supports odds of a Fed rate cut next week as policymakers contend with scarce government data.
  • Analysts tied parts of the price pressure to tariffs and labor policies, and separate research estimates household costs have risen materially due to new duties; Social Security set a 2.8% COLA for 2026 based on the CPI.