Overview
- The Nature study released Wednesday finds that if total clearing reaches about 22–28%, two-thirds of the Amazon could shift to degraded or savannah-like states at 1.5–1.9°C warming.
- The team reports that trees recycle up to half of the basin’s rain, so losing forest dries the air and primes downwind areas for cascading drought and fire.
- Without further clearing, the models place comparable large-scale degradation nearer 3.7–4°C, yet roughly 17–18% of the forest has already been lost.
- A Geophysical Research Letters paper finds the southern Amazon’s rainfall grows more sensitive under warming, with evidence that current 20% deforestation limits may not protect rain and, under high emissions, even 10% treeless area can trigger declines.
- Brazil’s latest monitoring shows deforestation falling toward a post‑2012 low, but degradation from wildfires, logging and drought is widespread and a bill to bar satellite-only fines could blunt IBAMA’s enforcement as a strong El Niño raises 2026 fire risk.