Overview

• A Nature Communications study led by University of São Paulo researchers attributes about 74.5% of the observed dry-season rainfall decline and 16.5% of the local temperature rise to deforestation, with rainfall down roughly 21 mm per year and the hottest days about 2.0 °C warmer since 1985.
• Using parametric surface models with long-term satellite and reanalysis data, the study separates local land-cover effects from global forcing and finds that increases in atmospheric CO2 and methane concentrations over 35 years are driven almost entirely by global emissions.
• A complementary PNAS field study in Tapajós National Forest shows that most dry-season transpiration draws from the top 50 cm of soil—69% on a hill site and 46% in a valley—and that species with higher embolism resistance sustain this rapid recycling of recent rainfall.
• Researchers warn that reduced forest cover weakens the Amazon’s moisture “flying rivers,” increasing wildfire risk and threatening downwind agriculture, with farmers in Mato Grosso already reporting drought-driven losses after a 150-day dry spell in 2024.
• MapBiomas data show Brazil’s Amazon has lost about 14% of native vegetation since 1985 (roughly 553,000 km²), and reporting notes deforestation in early 2025 ran 27% higher than a year earlier, intensifying policy urgency ahead of COP30 in Belém.