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Deere Beats in Q4 as 2026 Outlook Softens, UBS Sees Cycle Trough

UBS frames 2026 as the agricultural low point, signaling expectations for a 2027 rebound.

Overview

  • Deere reported fourth-quarter EPS of $3.93 and revenue of $12.39 billion, topping Wall Street estimates.
  • The company guided fiscal 2026 net income to $4.0 billion–$4.75 billion and projected operating cash flow of $4.0 billion–$5.0 billion.
  • Management forecast production and precision agriculture sales down 5%–10% in 2026, with small agriculture and turf as well as construction and forestry each up about 10%.
  • UBS reiterated a Buy with a $535 price target, calling 2026 the earnings bottom and attributing the guidance shortfall mainly to a weak first quarter in North America.
  • Truist raised its price target to $612, RBC trimmed to $541 while pointing to roughly $1.2 billion in pre-tax tariff costs, and Evercore lowered to $458, as shares rose about 0.6% on Friday.