Overview

• Charts compiled by former National Hurricane Center hurricane specialist unit chief James Franklin show the AI produced the lowest track and intensity errors through 72 hours for Erin.
• The model beat the NHC’s official track and outperformed several physics-based and hurricane-specific models at short lead times.
• It also bested closely watched TVCN and IVCN consensus products in the short range, a notable benchmark for forecasters.
• Accuracy dropped at longer leads, underscoring the need for better 3–5 day skill that drives evacuation and preparedness decisions.
• Weather Lab remains an experimental tool under NHC evaluation rather than an operational forecast source.