Overview
- Post-storm charts compiled by former NHC unit chief James Franklin show the GDMI model beat the NHC official track and several physics-based and hurricane-specific models through 72 hours.
- The model also led on intensity forecasts for the first 72 hours, with particularly strong accuracy at the 48-hour lead time.
- Erin’s rapid intensification to Category 5 provided the model’s first major real-time trial, with impacts reported in Bermuda, parts of the Caribbean, and along the U.S. East Coast.
- DeepMind trained the system on a global reanalysis dataset and a specialized database of nearly 5,000 observed cyclones, taking a data-driven approach distinct from numerical weather prediction.
- Google reports 2023–2024 backtesting with five-day tracks averaging about 140 km closer than the ECMWF ensemble, while experts note the small sample and the need to improve 3–5 day performance.