December Jobs Report Expected to Show Moderate Growth

Unemployment Rate to Remain Below 4% for 23rd Consecutive Month, Federal Reserve Anticipated to Begin Rate Cuts in March

The December jobs report, due to be released on Friday, is expected to show a gain of 160,000 to 170,000 nonfarm payrolls, marking an average of 232,000 jobs per month through November, and around 2.78 million for the year.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%, which will still keep it below 4% for 23 straight months.
The labor force grew by about 3.3 million in 2023 through November, though the trend has had little impact on the unemployment rate, which was up just 0.1 percentage point from the same month in 2022.
The labor market is gradually decelerating in a very orderly fashion, with the hiring rate still below where it was prior to the Covid pandemic.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting rates as early as March, eventually lopping off 1.5 percentage points from its benchmark rate by the end of 2024.