Overview
- James Talarico held a slim polling edge as early voting began Monday, with RealClearPolitics and multiple polls showing him up by roughly two points on average.
- Ken Paxton has refused several debate and town‑hall invitations while launching an 18‑day statewide bus tour and unveiling the 'Protecting Texas Promise Plan' to press his closing argument to voters.
- Outside groups and super PACs have poured more than $500 million into Texas contests so far, with Republican‑aligned spending outpacing Democrats by several hundred million dollars.
- GOP divisions have widened late in the campaign as President Donald J. Trump publicly blamed Sen. John Cornyn and Karl Rove for any Paxton loss and polling shows Paxton failing to capture roughly 10% of his own party.
- If Talarico wins it would end a Republican streak of statewide victories dating to 1994 and could shift the balance in the U.S. Senate, making late turnout operations and ad buys decisive in the final weeks.