Overview
- An integrated network of autonomous shuttles and buses linked to rail is modeled as the most effective approach, requiring about one million vehicles by 2045.
- Average waits could fall to five minutes in cities and 13 minutes in rural areas, with urban road traffic declining by up to 11% and public transport’s share rising to roughly 35%.
- Public subsidies could drop by about 20% even with expanded service, and drivers who switch to transit are projected to save around €170 per month by 2045.
- The study warns that a competition scenario with privately run robotaxis could increase metropolitan traffic by up to 40% and do little for rural access.
- Authors and industry leaders call for four to five large test regions with clear approvals to plan scaling, noting Level‑4 pilots with RMV and DB already carry passengers with safety staff.