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DAX Rally Pauses With Cut Bets Elevated, Peace Hopes Reprice Defense

High odds of a December Fed cut keep the DAX anchored above its 200‑day average.

Overview

  • The index edged higher after a three‑day rebound and traded near 23,750, having reclaimed the 200‑day moving average around 23,480.
  • Futures pricing implies roughly an 85% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed cut on December 10 following softer US retail and confidence data and recent policymaker signals, though the Beige Book gave no clear steer.
  • Reports of progress in UkraineRussia talks supported risk appetite and spurred profit‑taking in defense shares and related ETFs, even as negotiations continue.
  • Wall Street extended gains on Tuesday and Asian markets advanced, and US exchanges are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
  • Stock‑specific currents remain active, with Thyssenkrupp Nucera sliding on a weaker revenue outlook and oil stabilizing after a drop tied to potential sanction relief increasing Russian supply.