Overview
- An Ifop poll conducted Oct. 29–Nov. 3 shows Rachida Dati at 26–28% in first‑round voting intentions, ahead of Pierre‑Yves Bournazel at 14–15% and a left led by Emmanuel Grégoire at 20–22%.
- Renaissance formally chose to support Bournazel, a Horizons figure close to Édouard Philippe, creating a split on the center‑right where Dati had been the natural standard‑bearer.
- On the left, Socialists, Greens and LFI remain divided over whether to ally from the first round, with PS resisting an immediate pact that includes LFI.
- In a second‑round triangular scenario keeping Bournazel in the race, the poll projects a united left list led by Grégoire defeating Dati by 42% to 39%.
- A recent shift to a direct citywide vote increases the weight of densely populated, less‑favored districts in north‑east Paris, where more than half of Parisians live, reshaping campaign priorities.