Datafolha Shows Technical Tie Between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in Second Round

Overview

• Datafolha published its new second‑round poll on Thursday, Oct. 15 showing Flávio Bolsonaro with 47% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 45% of total intentions while Flávio leads 51% to 49% when blank, null and undecided votes are excluded.
• The survey interviewed 2,520 people in fieldwork conducted Oct. 13–14 (some reports list Oct. 13–15), is registered at the TSE as BR‑00466/2026 and carries a two‑point margin of error, which makes the two‑point gap statistically tied.
• Compared with last week’s Datafolha, Flávio’s total vote share slipped from 49% to 47% and his lead on valid votes narrowed from four points to two points, signaling a tightening race in the final ten days before the runoff.
• The poll shows high candidate rejection and mixed government ratings with 46% rejecting Lula, 44% rejecting Flávio, 50% disapproving of Lula’s government and 48% approving, and it reveals strong regional and demographic splits in support.
• With 6% planning blank or null votes and 2% undecided, the survey highlights a decisive pool of voters and notes that recent mobilizations and last‑minute policy moves occurred during or just before fieldwork and could shift results through turnout, endorsements and campaign strategy.