Overview
- Datafolha's survey, published Friday and conducted Sept. 22–24 with 1,204 interviews, shows Ciro Gomes at 44% and incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 43% in the stimulated vote within a 3‑point margin of error.
- The same poll's spontaneous question gives Elmano a slight lead with 34% to Ciro's 31%, suggesting some voters name Elmano more readily without prompts.
- Since mid‑August Ciro's support fell from about 52% to 44% while Elmano rose from roughly 33% to 43%, narrowing a previously wide gap across three Datafolha rounds.
- Other candidates together total about 2%, blank/null votes are 6%, undecided voters are 5%, and rejection rates are notable at 34% for Elmano and 29% for Ciro, making outcomes sensitive to late movement.
- The poll was commissioned by O Povo and is registered with the Electoral Court (CE‑00198/2026); a hypothetical second round also shows a technical tie with Ciro 48% and Elmano 46%.