Datafolha Puts Pernambuco Governor Race in a Technical Tie

Overview

• The Datafolha poll released Oct. 1 shows incumbent Raquel Lyra at 46% and challenger João Campos at 44% in first-round voting intentions, a gap inside the survey's ±3 percentage-point margin.
• When blank, null and undecided votes are excluded the same survey gives Lyra 50% and Campos 47% on votes valid and a 50%–46% edge for Lyra in a simulated runoff.
• Datafolha interviewed 1,204 Pernambuco voters between Sept. 28 and Oct. 1, used a 95% confidence level and reported rejection rates of 34% for Campos and 32% for Lyra.
• The closing days of the campaign have seen disputes that could shift late voters, including a circulated video of Lyra on laqueadura for which she apologized, debate over betting taxation and sponsorship tied to Campos, and mutual judicial complaints over paid social-media networks.
• Pernambuco is a high-profile test for national actors because President Lula endorsed Campos and the state has large Lula support from 2022, so the final result could affect local policy choices and national political dynamics.