Datafolha: Petistas 40%, Bolsonaristas 34% as Polarization Encompasses 74%

Overview

• Fielded 2–4 December with 2,002 interviews in 113 municipalities and a ±2 percentage-point margin of error, the Datafolha poll classifies 40% as petista, 34% as bolsonarista, 18% as neutral, 6% as neither and 1% as undecided using a 1–5 identification scale.
• Relative to July, petistas edged up from 39% and bolsonaristas fell from 37%, ending a technical tie even though both movements lie within the survey’s margin of error.
• Petismo is more prevalent among women, retirees, people with lower schooling, residents of the Northeast and Catholics, whereas bolsonarismo is stronger among men, entrepreneurs, higher earners, residents of the South and evangelicals.
• A separate Instituto Opinião survey finds 52.8% of voters do not align presidential and federal deputy votes, indicating potential gaps between presidential backing and the composition of the Chamber of Deputies.
• On ideological self-placement, Datafolha reports 35% identify as right, 22% as left and 17% as center, highlighting that leader-centric polarization exceeds traditional ideological labels.