Datafolha: Lula’s Government Approval Holds at 32% as Disapproval Stays at 37%

Overview

• Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 113 cities from December 2–4, with a two‑point margin of error, indicating results statistically stable versus the prior round.
• Compared with September’s reading, shifts in the good/regular/bad ratings fall within the survey’s margin, signaling a pause in the recovery seen earlier in the year.
• Lula’s personal job approval remains stronger than his administration’s score, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving, unchanged in practical terms from the previous poll.
• Government relations with the Senate remain tense after the nomination of AGU Jorge Messias to the Supreme Court, which triggered hostile votes and complicated vote‑gathering for confirmation.
• Context shaping opinion includes Bolsonaro’s arrest and final conviction, a partial rollback of U.S. import surtaxes after Lula’s October meeting with Trump, the new income‑tax exemption up to R$5,000, and fallout from a deadly Rio police operation.