Overview
- Datafolha's July 22–24 poll of 2,004 voters shows Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 32% in a first‑round scenario and 48% to 43% in a simulated second round.
- Both front‑runners carry very high rejection rates with Flávio at 48% and Lula at 46%, a dynamic that limits voter transfers and helps freeze the contest.
- Smaller candidates remain in single digits so the combined 'third‑way' vote does not threaten either leading ticket and has not gained ground since prior polls.
- Flávio's campaign faces reputational hits from the U.S. tariff controversy, disclosures linked to Banco Master and a public rift with Michelle Bolsonaro, and those troubles have made Centrist parties hesitant to form formal alliances ahead of the Aug. 5 convention deadline.
- A separate PoderData survey conducted July 18–20 finds half of voters say Lula's age would not be a problem for re‑election, a perception his team is using in messaging while both sides prepare for the start of paid TV and radio broadcasts on Aug. 15.