Datafolha Finds Petistas Now Outnumber Bolsonaristas as New Survey Tightens Lula–Flávio 2026 Runoff

Overview

• Datafolha’s Dec 2–4 survey reports 40% of Brazilians identify as petistas and 34% as bolsonaristas, with 74% aligning to one of the two camps and shifts versus July inside the ±2‑point margin of error.
• The same study maps sharp cleavages: petismo is stronger among women, retirees, Catholics and voters in the Northeast, while bolsonarismo is higher among men, business owners, evangelicals and voters in the South.
• On ideological self‑placement, 35% say they are right‑wing and 22% left‑wing, showing that leader loyalties do not neatly track classic left–right labels.
• Across December releases from Datafolha, Ipsos‑Ipec, Quaest, Real Time Big Data and AtlasIntel, Lula leads all first‑round simulations against various right‑of‑center alternatives.
• Paraná Pesquisas (fieldwork Dec 18–22; MoE ±2.2) shows the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro second‑round gap narrowing to roughly 44.1% vs 41%, and Poder360 reports statistical ties for Lula against Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio, Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas.