Datafolha Finds 74% Locked in Lula–Bolsonaro Camps, Petistas Lead 40% to 34%

Overview

• The Dec. 2–4 Datafolha survey (2,002 interviews in 113 municipalities, ±2 points) reports 40% identifying as petistas and 34% as bolsonaristas, with 18% neutral, 6% supporting neither and 1% undecided.
• Overall polarization is high and stable at 74%, a slight dip from 76% in July, while the petista edge over bolsonarismo reflects shifts within the margin of error.
• Alignment was measured on a 1–5 Lula–Bolsonaro scale, and a separate 1–7 left–right self-placement found 35% on the right and 22% on the left, highlighting distinct identity and ideological axes.
• Petismo is stronger among women, retirees, those with lower schooling, Catholics and residents of the Northeast, whereas bolsonarismo is higher among men, business owners, higher earners, evangelicals and residents of the South.
• The poll followed Bolsonaro’s recent conviction and detention episodes, and separate Instituto Opinião data indicate 52.8% of voters do not align their congressional choices with their presidential preference.