Data-Heavy Week: Brazil Services, Retail and IBC‑Br Lead as Focus Shows Little Change

Investors await a concentrated data run poised to reset views on inflation, growth, policy.

Overview

The Central Bank’s Boletim Focus shows a marginal dip in 2025 IPCA expectations to 4.80% with stable median forecasts for Selic and GDP.
IBGE will release August services on Tuesday and retail on Wednesday, followed by the Central Bank’s IBC‑Br activity gauge for August on Thursday.
The Fed’s Beige Book arrives Wednesday, with Eurozone and other inflation prints through the week and US September payrolls due Friday; OPEC’s monthly report is also expected.
US Treasury markets are closed for Columbus Day on Monday, though New York stock exchanges operate as usual.
CNI’s September ICEI reads 46.2, signaling continued industrial pessimism, while Secex reports September exports of US$30.5 billion, imports of US$27.5 billion, and a US$2.99 billion trade surplus.