Overview
- Danish Defense Intelligence (DDIS) published an updated assessment this week that warns Russia will carry out more frequent and more consequential hybrid operations against Western and NATO targets.
- The report says cyberattacks that cripple public services and sabotage of defense industries or rail links carrying military gear are likely tactics that aim to weaken support for Ukraine and slow resupply.
- DDIS judged the chance of a limited military strike on one or more NATO-bordering states is low but increasing and that an outright invasion of NATO territory remains highly unlikely because a large force buildup would take months to hide.
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance is ready for cyber and hybrid threats and urged allies to sustain or increase support for Ukraine to deter further escalation.
- Recent incidents cited by Western officials include unexplained fires, a foiled drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, and a September 14 flare incident in the Baltic Sea involving a Russian frigate and a Danish helicopter, while Moscow denies responsibility.