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Damage to Baikonur’s Sole Soyuz/Progress Pad in MS-28 Liftoff Puts ISS Logistics at Risk

Independent analysts warn repairs could take months, raising the prospect of delayed Progress resupply and reboosts.

Overview

  • Soyuz MS-28 launched Nov. 27 and docked safely with three crew, expanding the station temporarily to ten people.
  • Roscosmos confirmed damage at Site 31/6, said spare parts are on hand, and stated repairs will be carried out soon as assessments continue.
  • Imagery shows a roughly 20-ton mobile service platform fell into the flame trench, with outside experts describing more extensive structural damage than official statements imply.
  • A late-December Progress cargo mission from the pad now appears unlikely based on multiple reports, with the next crewed launch from the site not due until mid-2026.
  • Site 31/6 is currently Russia’s only pad configured for Soyuz crew and Progress cargo flights to the ISS, prompting contingency planning as NASA notes Dragon and Cygnus have demonstrated station reboost capability.