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Dallas Fed Survey Finds Oil Patch Outlook Worsens as Costs Rise and Capex Pulls Back

Executives blame policy uncertainty, tariffs for rising costs.

Overview

  • Q3 Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows the Eleventh District business activity index at -6.5, with company outlook sliding to -17.6.
  • Oil and gas production readings stayed negative, with the oil production index at -8.6 and natural gas at -3.2 among 139 firms surveyed Sept. 10–18.
  • Capital spending weakened sharply as the capex index fell to -11.6 from -3.0, reflecting tighter investment plans.
  • Price expectations were cut, with respondents now forecasting WTI at about $63 per barrel at year‑end 2025, rising modestly in later years.
  • Oilfield services remained under strain, with equipment utilization at -13.0, prices received at -26.1, and operating margins at -31.8, as some respondents described the sector as bleeding.