Overview
- Ray Dalio argues that investors misread 2025, saying currency devaluation—not AI or U.S. tech—defined market outcomes.
- Gold returned 65% in dollar terms versus 18% for the S&P 500, and the index fell 28% when measured in gold.
- The dollar declined 39% against gold and posted double‑digit losses versus the euro and Swiss franc, reshaping real returns for non‑U.S. investors.
- Non‑U.S. equities outperformed, with Europe ahead of the U.S. by 23%, China by 21%, the U.K. by 19%, and Japan by 10%, reflecting capital reallocation.
- Dalio highlights compressed risk premia from rate cuts, stretched equity valuations, nearly $10 trillion in U.S. debt refinancing needs, and political shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms.