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33m ago

Daicos Favoured, Dawson Leads Predictor as Brownlow Count Nears

Betting markets diverge from the AFL's predictor, which has Jordan Dawson marginally in front.

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Patrick Cripps kisses the Brownlow Medal on stage
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Overview

  • Monday night's Brownlow Medal count in Melbourne is expected to hinge on a five-man group of Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith, Jordan Dawson, Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, with Daicos the short-priced favourite.
  • AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor projects Dawson on 32 votes ahead of Daicos and Smith on 31 and Anderson on 30, and it touts a recent record of correctly tipping the past two winners while pointing to a likely first-time medallist.
  • Season awards have shaped expectations, with Daicos winning the AFL Players Association MVP and Smith and Anderson sharing the AFL Coaches Association player-of-the-year award.
  • Recent counts have trended to higher tallies, highlighted by Patrick Cripps' record 45 votes in 2024 and Daicos' 38 in a losing bid last year.
  • A Brownlow–premiership double is on the table, with Smith or long-shot Hugh McCluggage potentially becoming the first to achieve it since Dustin Martin in 2017 as Geelong face Brisbane in the grand final.