Overview

• Fresh polls put ANO at roughly 30–33% ahead of the Oct. 3–4 vote, with Ipsos measuring 32.6% and no clear majority in sight.
• Analysts foresee a splintered lower house and tough coalition bargaining, including a possible ANO-led minority tolerated by fringe parties or exploratory talks with mainstream rivals.
• Babiš has campaigned to stop further weapons deliveries to Ukraine, prompting uncertainty over Prague’s munitions initiative role and its stance in EU coordination.
• Pavel has vowed rigorous vetting of Babiš’s business affairs as a Prague court’s overturning of a past acquittal leaves an EU subsidy fraud case pending this autumn.
• A research initiative reported hundreds of alleged fake TikTok accounts pushing pro-Russian messages during the campaign, a claim based on its own monitoring.