Overview
- Cushing, Oklahoma, held about 21.6 million barrels of crude on Friday, a level the U.S. Energy Information Administration says is very close to the roughly 20 million barrels needed to keep pipelines and deliveries functioning normally.
- U.S. commercial crude supplies fell by more than 7 million barrels to about 426.5 million for the week ending June 5, reflecting fast drawdowns as American exports have filled gaps left by disrupted Gulf flows.
- The EIA reports global stockpiles are shrinking at roughly 6.3 million barrels per day and sit near 2.6 billion barrels, a pace that analysts say could push regional hubs into operational 'danger zones' within weeks to months.
- Investment banks and energy consultancies project steep price outcomes if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, with near-term scenarios ranging from about $130 to $150 a barrel by Labor Day and much higher prices if the disruption extends into 2027.
- Policymakers have leaned on Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and buyers have rerouted supplies, but U.S. officials say export limits are not being considered and market watchers warn fuel shortages and volatile pump prices are the main risks to monitor next.