Overview

• Polling expert Sir John Curtice delivered the assessment at a Demos fringe event during the Conservative Party conference in Manchester on Sunday.
• Recent YouGov figures cited at the event put Reform UK on 29%, the Conservatives on 16%, and the Liberal Democrats on 15%.
• He argued the Liberal Democrats’ vote is now more geographically concentrated than the Conservatives’, giving them a seats advantage under the electoral system.
• Curtice said the 2019 Boris Johnson coalition has largely fractured, with Reform UK taking the bulk of those former Conservative voters.
• He warned the Conservatives risk losing their status as a governing force and advised Kemi Badenoch’s party to focus on the economy and the health service rather than trying to outflank Reform on immigration.