Overview

• Colorado State’s final forecast predicts 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes, exceeding the 1991–2020 average of 14 named storms.
• The outlook assigns a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline, above the 43% historical average from 1880 to 2020.
• State-level estimates put Florida at highest risk with a 90% chance of tropical storm impact and a 62% chance of hurricane impact, while Gulf Coast and Southeast states also face elevated odds.
• Forecasters cited record-warm tropical Atlantic and Caribbean waters as key drivers but warned persistent Caribbean wind shear has lowered their confidence.
• NOAA’s updated outlook calls for 13–18 named storms with a 50% probability of above-normal activity and AccuWeather continues to project 13–18 storms including seven to ten hurricanes.