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CSIS Urges Fixes to Keep AUKUS on Track as Marles Presses Case in Washington

A new CSIS report calls the pact a strategic imperative, urging concrete planning to reassure Washington without forcing Australian pre‑commitments.

Virginia-class fast attack submarine USS Minnesota (SSN-783) is seen off the coast of Western Australia, Australia March 16, 2025. COLIN MURTY/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
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Overview

  • The Pentagon’s AUKUS review, led by Elbridge Colby, remains underway and is expected to conclude in the coming weeks as concerns persist over U.S. submarine production and transfers.
  • Visiting Washington, Defence Minister Richard Marles met Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to reinforce ties and discuss the submarine pathway.
  • CSIS authors Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel argue that scrapping the pact would erode U.S. capability and credibility in the Indo‑Pacific and say preserving it is a strategic imperative.
  • The report cites lagging U.S. output, lifetime costs estimated at about A$368 billion, workforce shortages and visa hurdles, and it urges narrowing Pillar Two to autonomy, long‑range strike and integrated air defense while creating an AUKUS visa and a senior envoy.
  • To address U.S. concerns over wartime availability of any Virginia‑class boats sold to Australia, the paper recommends detailed bilateral contingency planning and notes HMAS Stirling’s maintenance potential depends on clear U.S. signals that sales will proceed.