Overview

• The Pentagon’s AUKUS review, led by policy chief Elbridge Colby and launched in June, remains underway with completion expected in the autumn.
• CSIS authors Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel argue AUKUS should be preserved and call for U.S.–Australia contingency planning to give Washington clearer assurances on submarine deployment without compromising Australian sovereignty.
• The report highlights lagging U.S. Virginia-class output, skilled-labor shortages and visa barriers, and notes an estimated $240 billion cost to Australia over more than 30 years.
• HMAS Stirling in Perth is identified as a near-term rotation and maintenance hub for U.S., UK and future Australian submarines, though major investment is seen as unlikely without a clear U.S. signal on Virginia-class sales.
• Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles is in Washington for talks with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as U.S. officials press for firmer submarine-use commitments and higher Australian defense spending, with CSIS also urging a narrower Pillar Two focus on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated air defense.