Overview

• Bitcoin trades near $112,000, roughly 10% below its Aug. 14 record, with about $317 million in 24‑hour liquidations reported.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged five straight sessions of outflows totaling over $1.1 billion, while Ethereum funds recorded a $286.7 million inflow on Aug. 21.
• $3.82 billion in Bitcoin options expired Friday, with positioning skewed bearish as the put‑to‑call ratio hovered around 1.30 and max pain sat near $118,000.
• Skew shows elevated demand for downside protection, with overnight 25‑delta risk reversals about 6 vols put over call and one‑day implied volatility near 49%, pointing to roughly a 2–2.5% move.
• Rate‑cut odds for September have slipped to roughly 70–75% in recent days, reinforcing de‑risking into Powell’s policy update.