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Cruise Stocks Jump on Rate-Cut Bets and Holiday Travel Surge

Markets now see an 81% chance of a December Fed cut, a shift that would ease financing burdens for debt‑heavy cruise lines.

Overview

  • CME FedWatch shows roughly an 81% probability of a December rate cut after dovish comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller and Mary Daly, boosting rate‑sensitive cruise shares.
  • Thanksgiving travel is set to be the busiest in 15 years, with CNN reporting 81.8 million Americans expected to travel and the FAA projecting more than 52,000 flights on Tuesday.
  • Carnival rose about 5.23% to $26.06 and Royal Caribbean gained roughly 5.22% to $268.92 in Tuesday trading, according to Benzinga Pro data.
  • J.P. Morgan’s Matthew Boss reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Carnival, highlighting resilient demand and 2026 bookings that management says are already “very well booked” at historically high prices.
  • Carnival’s record Q3 included $2 billion in adjusted net income and a $1.43 EPS beat, with full‑year guidance raised to about $2.9 billion, and Wells Fargo recently initiated Overweight with a $37 price target.