Overview
- The Marquette University Law School poll found 51% of likely voters backing Democrat David Crowley and 44% backing Republican Tom Tiffany, a 7-point gap that was the largest Marquette has recorded between the two candidates.
- Marquette surveyed 818 registered voters with a likely-voter sample of 668 and reported margins of error of plus or minus 4.3 points for registered voters and 4.7 points for likely voters.
- The poll showed 4% of likely voters and 9% of all registered voters remained undecided, leaving room for the final outcome to change if turnout or late decisions shift.
- Republican donors routed large sums through the state party to create a heavy ad-buy advantage for Tiffany that dominated October airwaves, a background factor election watchers say could still influence voter attention and turnout.
- Absentee voting is already under way and the final result will hinge on who turns out and how undecided voters break, with Marquette’s late-sample movement marking a measurable change from its smaller Crowley leads in late September.