Overview
- Marquette Law School’s final pre-election survey, conducted Oct. 14–22 and reported Oct. 28, shows Democrat David Crowley ahead 51% to 44% among likely Wisconsin voters with a ±4.7 point margin of error for that subgroup.
- Republican Tom Tiffany has pledged to return the entire roughly $3 billion state surplus to taxpayers and proposed a 10% income tax cut for many families, while Crowley is campaigning on affordability measures such as capping child care at 7% of family earnings and a proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights.
- Large late-stage transfers and billionaire donations have funded heavy Republican ad buys for Tiffany, while Democrats deployed high-profile surrogates and message efforts to boost Crowley’s turnout and favorability.
- A rival League of American Workers poll shows a tighter contest with more undecided and leaning voters, and Marquette’s data point to a Democratic turnout edge with 84% of Democrats saying they are certain to vote versus 77% of Republicans.
- Vote operations and absentee ballots are now central to the outcome, with late-deciding voters, ongoing allegations about Crowley reported by some outlets, and how voters respond to the surplus and affordability arguments likely to determine who wins on Nov. 3.