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3d ago

Crockett, Talarico Tied in Texas Senate Primary, With Latino Voters in Focus

New TPOR polling shows a one-point gap with 21 percent undecided, signaling a volatile contest shaped by electability concerns.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett takes a selfie with attendees at a campaign event for her Democratic primary bid for the U.S. Senate in Brownsville on Jan. 10, 2026.
Representative Jasmine Crockett speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on March 20, 2024.

Overview

  • A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,290 likely Democratic primary voters conducted Jan. 14–21 puts Jasmine Crockett at 38 percent and James Talarico at 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.7 points and 21 percent undecided.
  • Crockett holds an advantage in name recognition and favorability, with 69 percent viewing her positively versus 52 percent for Talarico, and fewer voters reporting they have not heard of her.
  • Talarico leads among white, Latino, and college-educated voters, while Crockett leads among Black, non-college-educated, and middle-aged voters, according to the poll.
  • Latino outreach has escalated: Crockett visited the Dilley detention center and headlined a McAllen rally as she criticized ICE conditions, while Talarico aired a Spanish-language TV ad and launched Spanish-language social channels.
  • Voters prioritize electability for November, with survey respondents giving Talarico a slight edge on winning over Trump voters and viewing Crockett as stronger at mobilizing the Democratic base.