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Crisil: Venezuela Turmoil Poses Little Risk to India’s Trade or Corporate Credit

Crisil expects little near-term effect on crude prices given Venezuela’s small role in global supply.

Overview

  • India’s direct trade with Venezuela is tiny, with imports under 0.25% of India’s total and Crisil seeing no material impact on Indian corporate credit given modest exposure.
  • Crude and allied products made up over 90% of roughly Rs 14,000 crore in imports from Venezuela in fiscal 2025.
  • India’s exports to Venezuela were below Rs 2,000 crore last fiscal, led by about Rs 900 crore of pharmaceuticals, with ceramics, textiles and two-wheelers at Rs 80–120 crore each.
  • A US military operation captured President Nicolás Maduro, and US President Donald Trump said 30–50 million Venezuelan barrels would be sold with proceeds held in American-controlled accounts.
  • Venezuela accounts for about 1.5% of global crude supply and roughly 1% of India’s crude needs, Brent has hovered just above $60, and Crisil says longer-term investment could expand supply and ease prices.