Overview
- Crisil’s Rainfall Distortion Index for the 2025 southwest monsoon is 18.7, the highest positive reading in 14 years and above 2024’s 17.9 and the five‑year average of 9.9.
- Excess rainfall affected crops in 10 states that account for 58% of kharif area, with very large surpluses reported in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh.
- The agency expects only a modest countrywide impact on kharif output despite localized damage to paddy, pulses, cotton and horticulture in states such as Punjab, Rajasthan and Telangana.
- Northwest, central and South Peninsula regions recorded large surpluses—127.3%, 115.1% and 110.4% of normal—which triggered floods and yield losses in multiple states.
- The agriculture ministry projects foodgrain production to rise 2.4% to 362.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, while Crisil says a third straight successful harvest is possible if further adverse weather does not occur.