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Credit Cools in Russia as Banks Lift Some Deposit Rates and a 17% Hold Is Widely Expected

Subsidies now drive housing credit, with market rates near 19–21% absent new cuts.

Overview

  • NBKI reports new credit card issuance fell 36.5% year over year in September to 1.23 million, with card limits down 26.5% versus August.
  • The average consumer loan size declined 12.9% month over month to 181,000 rubles, which NBKI links to new cooling periods that prompt smaller requests, though the figure rose 17.9% from a year earlier.
  • Analysts polled expect the Bank of Russia to keep the key rate at 17% on October 24, citing persistent inflation pressures and a tight labor market, though a minority sees room for small cuts.
  • Several lenders, including Sberbank, VTB and Dom.RF, raised rates on select—mainly short‑term—deposits to retain clients and reflect slower‑than‑hoped policy easing, and experts suggest the moves could be temporary.
  • OKB says preferential mortgages rose 14% year over year in September to 45,230 loans worth 262.31 billion rubles, taking 54% of deals by number and 73% by volume, while experts estimate market mortgage rates near 19–21% by year‑end if easing remains limited.