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CREA Cuts 2025 Home Sales Forecast Again as Mid-Year Activity Rises

CREA forecasts 3% fewer home sales at 469,503 units for 2025 with prices set to fall 1.7% following a 3.5% June sales increase

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says 6,244 homes were sold in May, down 13.3 per cent year-over-year. A west-end Toronto home for sale is shown in a July 15, 2023 file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graeme Roy
A "for sale" sign is seen in front of a home in Laval, Que., on Friday, July 4, 2025. For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2025, as it reported that the number of homes that changed hands across the country in June rose 3.5 per cent compared with a year ago. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

Overview

  • The Canadian Real Estate Association has lowered its 2025 sales outlook for the second time this year, now predicting a 3% drop to 469,503 transactions compared with 2024.
  • Average national home prices are projected to decline 1.7% to $677,368 in 2025 after June’s selling price fell 1.3% year-over-year to $691,643.
  • Seasonally adjusted June activity showed home sales up 3.5% from June 2024 and 2.8% from May, signaling a delayed rebound in demand.
  • Senior economist Shaun Cathcart said the market’s recovery was only postponed by early trade-related uncertainty and should strengthen by fall.
  • CREA expects a stronger upswing in 2026 with home sales climbing 6.3% to 499,081 units as pent-up demand intersects lower borrowing costs.