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CPKC Adjusts Annual Outlook as Tariff Concerns Cloud Economic Forecast

Despite a 17% profit increase in Q1, the tri-national railway lowers its earnings guidance and highlights new Canada–Mexico trade flows.

A CN locomotive sits idle at the CN Stuart Yard west of the West Harbour GO station in Hamilton, Ont., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Peter Power
TC Energy headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Tuesday, July 30, 2024.
Locomotives sit idol at the CPKC railyard in Calgary, Alta., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
CPKC CEO Keith Creel says uncertainty fuelled by shifting tariffs and a risk of recession prompted more moderate earnings expectations for the company. The flags of the United States, Canada and Mexico fly at CPKC headquarters in Calgary on April 24, 2024.

Overview

  • Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. reduced its 2025 earnings per share growth forecast to 10–14%, down from 12–18%, citing evolving U.S. trade policies and recession risks.
  • The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in Q1 net income, reaching $909 million, with revenues rising 8% to $3.80 billion.
  • CPKC's leadership, including CEO Keith Creel, attributes the forecast adjustment to shifting tariffs and broader economic uncertainty.
  • New Canada–Mexico shipping flows, driven by refined fuels, plastics, and grains, have generated over $100 million in additional revenue.
  • CPKC launched a 60-day customer engagement campaign to bolster partnerships and navigate trade disruptions across its tri-national network.