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CPKC Adjusts 2025 Earnings Outlook as Trade Risks Reshape Strategy

The railway cites tariff uncertainties and recession risks while leveraging Canada-Mexico trade flows to offset U.S. disruptions.

A CN locomotive sits idle at the CN Stuart Yard west of the West Harbour GO station in Hamilton, Ont., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Peter Power
TC Energy headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Tuesday, July 30, 2024.
Locomotives sit idol at the CPKC railyard in Calgary, Alta., Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Workers chat with each other at the Magna Electric Vehicle Structures Facility that builds battery enclosures for electric (EV) vehicles, in St. Clair, Michigan, U.S., March 26, 2025.

Overview

  • CPKC revised its 2025 earnings growth forecast to 10–14%, down from the previously projected 12–18%, citing ongoing trade policy shifts and economic risks.
  • The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in Q1 net income, reaching $909 million, with revenues up 8% to $3.8 billion.
  • New Canada-Mexico shipping routes have generated over $100 million in revenue, helping mitigate challenges from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos.
  • CN Rail maintained its 2025 financial forecast despite trade war pressures, reporting a 5% rise in Q1 net income to $1.16 billion and a 4% revenue increase to $4.4 billion.
  • Both rail operators flagged heightened recession risks and volume uncertainty as key challenges in the evolving North American trade landscape.