Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral between January and March 2026, with neutral conditions favored through late spring.
- The agency puts the probability of El Niño developing by late summer at 61%, but has not issued an El Niño watch.
- Officials say La Niña will continue to shape U.S. weather for the rest of winter, consistent with typical north-shifted jet stream patterns.
- California has logged well-above-average precipitation this water year, boosting reservoirs and leaving statewide snowpack near 91% of normal, though groundwater remains low in places.
- Researchers attribute Southern California’s surprising rainfall to strong atmospheric rivers, and new forecasts point to a late-January return to a La Niña-like pattern with a warmer West, colder Northern Tier and potential East Coast storm development.